Proyectos de Investigación

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    DYVIC: DYnamic VIrus Control in Peru
    (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2020) Lossio-Ventura, Juan Antonio; Alatrista-Salas, Hugo; Barrena, Kevin; Linos, Eleni; Núñez del Prado, Miguel; Talavera, Alvaro
    The COVID-19 crisis has produced worldwide changes from people’s lifestyles to travel restrictions imposed by world’s nations aiming to keep the virus out. Several countries have created digital information applications to help control and manage the COVID-19 crisis, such as the creation of contact tracing apps. The Peruvian government in collaboration with several institutions developed PerúEnTusManos, an epidemiological tracing application. The application uses georeferencing to study users’ movements and creates individual mobility patterns from the Peruvian citizens as well as detects crowds. In this article, we present a process to detect possible infected individuals based on probabilities assigned to people that had contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19, using data collected from PerúEnTusManos. The preliminary evaluation shows promising results when detecting probabilities of possible infected individuals as well as the most infected districts in Peru. The ultimate goal of the application in Peru is to provide reliable information to health authorities to make informed decisions about the assignations of the available clinical tests and the economic re-activation.
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    A methodology for managing public spaces to increase access to essential goods and services by vulnerable populations during the COVID-19 pandemic
    (Emerald Publishing, 2022-03-22) Regal, Andrés; Ortega, Claudio; Bronfman, Andrés; Rodríguez Serra, Michelle; Chong, Mario
    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present a spatial decision support system (SDSS) to be used by the local authorities of a city in the planning and response phase of a disaster. The SDSS focuses on the management of public spaces as a resource to increase a vulnerable population’s accessibility to essential goods and services. Using a web-based platform, the SDSS would support data-driven decisions, especially for cases such as the COVID-19 pandemic which requires special care in quarantine situations (which imply walking access instead of by other means of transport). Design/methodology/approach: This paper proposes a methodology to create a web-SDSS to manage public spaces in the planning and response phase of a disaster to increase the access to essential goods and services. Using a regular polygon grid, a city is partitioned into spatial units that aggregate spatial data from open and proprietary sources. The polygon grid is then used to compute accessibility, vulnerability and population density indicators using spatial analysis. Finally, a facility location problem is formulated and solved to provide decision-makers with an adaptive selection of public spaces given their indicators of choice. Findings: The design and implementation of the methodology resulted in a granular representation of the city of Lima, Peru, in terms of population density, accessibility and vulnerability. Using these indicators, the SDSS was deployed as a web application that allowed decision-makers to explore different solutions to a facility location model within their districts, as well as visualizing the indicators computed for the hexagons that covered the district’s area. By performing tests with different local authorities, improvements were suggested to support a more general set of decisions and the key indicators to use in the SDSS were determined. Originality/value: This paper, following the literature gap, is the first of its kind that presents an SDSS focused on increasing access to essential goods and services using public spaces and has had a successful response from local authorities with different backgrounds regarding the integration into their decision-making process.
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    Fresh product supply chain analysis in Cauca, Colombia — A hass avocado system dynamics approach
    (MDPI, 2023-01) Anacona Mopan, Yesid Ediver; Rubiano-Ovalle, Oscar; Paz, Helmer; Solis Pino, Andrés Felipe; Chong, Mario; Luna, Ana
    In recent years, agriculture has become an essential activity in Colombia, despite the challenges faced by farmers due to low yields and insufficient resources to improve their main activities, such as irrigation systems, agricultural practices, and industrial machinery. This Hass avocado approach has been addressed in previous research considering system dynamics simulation to evaluate farmers’ behavior strategies and improve their competitiveness. However, these studies typically examine a single strategy effect and avoid multiple integrated strategies. Other studies focused on the complex interactions between different factors in the production chain and their feedback effects on farmers’ productivity and cash flow. For these reasons, this research provides a comprehensively dynamic model and evaluates long-term strategies and their effects on supporting and improving small farmers’ productivity and profitability. A system dynamics methodology was used to model complex systems processing Hass avocado farmer association data and explore their effects on competitiveness for long-term sustainable and profitable agriculture. This research proposes optimal scenarios for small farmers, including strategies such as low-interest credit access, logistics practices, and government technical support. The scenarios provide a proactive tool for decision makers and promote rural farmers’ development, aligning high-quality fresh product supply and demand.
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    Impact of private and public initiatives on individuals' employment and income during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Peru
    (Universidad ESAN, 2024-03-26) Mongrut, Samuel; Cruz, Vivian; Pacussich, Daniela
    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of private and public initiatives (financial literacy, entrepreneurship, remote work and government aid) on individual job loss and decrease in income during the COVID-19 pandemic in Peru. Design/methodology/approach: The authors used an unbalanced panel data analysis with the National Household Survey for 2019–2020. The hypotheses are tested with a probit panel data model since the dependent variables are binary. Findings: The study findings indicate that financial preparedness reduced the probability of having a decrease in income, but only to informal workers in metropolitan Lima. Furthermore, entrepreneurship helped mainly female informal workers to reduce their probability of becoming unemployed in metropolitan Lima. Besides, the implementation of remote work as a substitute of face-to-face work was not enough to avoid the decrease in income in the case of informal workers and it was only effective to avoid unemployment in the case of formal workers in metropolitan Lima. Finally, public aid proved to be instrumental in mitigating the decrease in income, but only to informal workers in Metropolitan Lima. Research limitations/implications: The study results only apply for the first year of the pandemic. Practical implications: Policymakers should focus on increasing the financial preparedness of informal workers, especially in provinces. Social implications: Policymakers must expand unemployment benefits, and design public aid programs targeting informal workers in provinces. Originality/value: This is the first study that analyses the impact of private and public initiatives on the decrease in income and unemployment situation of Peruvian individuals during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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    Public policy on agricultural projects assessing the impact: a Hass avocado crop system dynamics applied valuation
    (MDPI, 2024-06) Anacona Mopan, Yesid Ediver; Rubiano-Ovalle, Oscar; Paz, Helmer; Luna, Ana; Solis Pino, Andrés Felipe; Chong, Mario
    Colombia has positioned itself as a significant actor in Hass avocado production, capitalizing on the rising global demand and its suitable climate for the crop. These conditions have led to considerable investments from farmers. In this business environment, this research presents a systematic simulation and methodological approach for the evaluation of crops focusing on the Hass avocado and its extension to small-scale producers in Colombia. The initial phase involved a comprehensive analysis of key variables in the Hass avocado production chain, assessing productivity and viability. Subsequently, a dynamic model was developed to explore four scenarios spanning 13 years. The first scenario evaluated the production chain’s current behavior, while the second scrutinized the impact of credit accessibility. The third scenario analyzed the associativity among producers’ effects, and the fourth assessed the impact of government support. The results underscore that the implementation of each strategy improves the economic returns. Integrating all three strategies is the most effective method. These scenarios serve as proactive tools for investors, equipping them valuable insights and enabling informed decisions. Moreover, the study advocates for the promotion of rural economic development through strategic agricultural interventions.