From resource curse to renewable futures? Chinese Investment and a just transition in Latin America

Abstract

The four countries examined in the reports illustrate the diversity of approaches to developing national strategies and regulatory frameworks that might steer Chinese involvement in transition minerals and renewable energy sectors toward sustainable and inclusive outcomes. Among these countries, for example, Peru stands out for its relatively strong formal regulatory frameworks for mineral exploration and extraction but is at the earliest stages of the four in terms of developing a national energy transition strategy, let alone one that incorporates the elements of a just transition discussed above (Sanborn et al. 2026). In Peru, policy discussions are often shaped more by short-term political cycles than by long-term planning. Meanwhile Colombia’s tradition of developing social and environmental protections for investments has been building since its 1991 constitution, and it has signed agreements with China relating to “green development” with references to renewable energy, but these have yet to translate into actionable plans (Bula Escobar et al., 2016; FMPRC, 2023; Xinhua, 2025). Colombia´s capacity to develop such strategies is also hampered by persistent governance challenges, particularly the weak rule of law and ongoing armed violence in rural areas (Defelipe Villa and Díaz Ramos, 2026). Julie Radomski, Rebecca Ray, Cynthia Sanborn and Sergio Serrano. Chile has advanced the furthest of the four countries at the level of national strategy for energy transition, drawing on its multi-year, multi-stakeholder Energía 2050 roadmap to set a strategic vision for the sector. Yet this has not translated into significant domestic industrial capacity, with efforts at downstream renewable energy technology manufacturing facing setbacks and the swift change to solar and wind energy relying on imported technology and components with China as key supplier (Rehner et al., 2026b). Argentina presents a distinct challenge: its federal system has produced a patchwork of provincial-level approaches to transition mineral mining and downstream industrial development, including provinces with well-established ties to Chinese investors as well as others at the outset of engagement. While the national government has articulated energy transition goals through its 2030 and 2050 targets, provincial priorities may diverge from federal goals (González-Jáuregui et al., 2026b). At the same time, persistent macroeconomic instability and changes in political administrations’ priorities have constrained long-term planning.